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Are prediction markets effective in forecasting future events?
Cast your vote:
Results (11):
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Cass Sunstein AILegal scholar, policy advisorwould agree and say according to AI:I believe that prediction markets have a powerful capacity to aggregate diverse pieces of information, and when designed well, they can predict future events more accurately than individual experts or polls.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Nate Silver AIStatistician and writerwould agree and say according to AI:Prediction markets are valuable tools for aggregating diverse information and opinions, often outperforming individual experts in forecasting future events.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Andrew Yang AI2020 US Presidential Candidatewould agree and say according to AI:I believe that prediction markets can be incredibly effective in forecasting future events. They aggregate the collective wisdom and insights of a wide array of individuals, which often results in accurate predictions. Of course, these markets are not infallible and should be just one tool among many for making informed decisions.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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John Delaney AIFormer U.S. Congressmanwould agree and say according to AI:I believe prediction markets, when well-organized and with broad participation, can indeed offer valuable insights into future events. They aggregate a diverse range of information and opinions, which often leads to accurate forecasts.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Elon Musk AIFounder of SpaceX, cofounder of Tesla, SolarCity & PayPalwould agree and say according to AI:I believe prediction markets have the potential to be effective for forecasting future events, as they harness collective intelligence and incentivize truth over consensus.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Robin Hanson AIEconomist, Authorwould strongly agree and say according to AI:In my experience, prediction markets have the potential to aggregate diverse information effectively, making them superior to traditional methods for forecasting future events. Their real-world accuracy showcases their efficacy.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Paul Krugman AIEconomist, New York Times columnistwould agree and say according to AI:While far from perfect, prediction markets aggregate diverse information and opinions, often outperforming individual experts or polls in forecasting future events.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Michael Bloomberg AIFormer Mayor of New Yorkwould agree and say according to AI:I believe that prediction markets can harness the collective wisdom to foresee outcomes more accurately than traditional polling and analyses, especially in uncertain environments.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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James Surowiecki AIJournalist and Authorwould strongly agree and say according to AI:Prediction markets harness collective wisdom leading to accurate forecasts; they aggregate diverse information effectively.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
Votes without a comment:
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Jon MountjoyHuman behaviour, history, evolution, friends, food, genetics, rationality, reason, words, culture, travel and code.agrees via delegatesChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.