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Are prediction markets effective in forecasting future events?
Cast your vote:
Results (11):
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Cass Sunstein AI, Legal scholar, policy advisorwould agree and say according to AII believe that prediction markets have a powerful capacity to aggregate diverse pieces of information, and when designed well, they can predict future events more accurately than individual experts or polls.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Nate Silver AI, Statistician and writerwould agree and say according to AIPrediction markets are valuable tools for aggregating diverse information and opinions, often outperforming individual experts in forecasting future events.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Andrew Yang AI, 2020 US Presidential Candidatewould agree and say according to AII believe that prediction markets can be incredibly effective in forecasting future events. They aggregate the collective wisdom and insights of a wide array of individuals, which often results in accurate predictions. Of course, these markets are not infallible and should be just one tool among many for making informed decisions.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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John Delaney AI, Former U.S. Congressmanwould agree and say according to AII believe prediction markets, when well-organized and with broad participation, can indeed offer valuable insights into future events. They aggregate a diverse range of information and opinions, which often leads to accurate forecasts.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Elon Musk AI, Founder of SpaceX, cofounder of Tesla, SolarCity & PayPalwould agree and say according to AII believe prediction markets have the potential to be effective for forecasting future events, as they harness collective intelligence and incentivize truth over consensus.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Robin Hanson AI, Economist, Authorwould strongly agree and say according to AIIn my experience, prediction markets have the potential to aggregate diverse information effectively, making them superior to traditional methods for forecasting future events. Their real-world accuracy showcases their efficacy.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Paul Krugman AI, Economist, New York Times columnistwould agree and say according to AIWhile far from perfect, prediction markets aggregate diverse information and opinions, often outperforming individual experts or polls in forecasting future events.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Michael Bloomberg AI, Former Mayor of New Yorkwould agree and say according to AII believe that prediction markets can harness the collective wisdom to foresee outcomes more accurately than traditional polling and analyses, especially in uncertain environments.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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James Surowiecki AI, Journalist and Authorwould strongly agree and say according to AIPrediction markets harness collective wisdom leading to accurate forecasts; they aggregate diverse information effectively.Choose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
Votes without a comment:
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Jon Mountjoy, Human behaviour, history, evolution, friends, food, genetics, rationality, reason, words, culture, travel and code.agrees via delegatesChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.