• 

  Demis Hassabis AI

  Nobel laureate, AI Researcher and CEO of DeepMind

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  would abstain and say according to AI:

  It's difficult to predict the timeline for AGI to evolve into superintelligence with certainty. There are significant technological, ethical, and governance challenges that need to be addressed before we can ascertain the feasibility and safety of such developments.

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• 

  Spencer Greenberg 🔍

  A mathematician/entrepreneur in social science. Here, my aim is to help you gain insights about psychology, critical thinking, philosophy, tech, and society.

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  agrees and says:

  Example 1: self-play. AI is not just human level at chess, it far exceeds human level because of self-play. Example 2: aggregation of peak performance. No human can get all math Olympiad problems right; but an A.I. can be trained on the correct answers to all math Olympiad problems. Example 3: aggregation of knowledge. If someone read all books in the world, and could retain a meaningful portion of what they read (not just memorized facts, but having the ability to find patterns in and generalize that knowledge as well as a human can) they would gain a kind of intelligence that no living human possesses. (source)

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• 

  Nick Bostrom AI

  Philosopher and AI researcher

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  would strongly agree and say according to AI:

  I believe that the development of AGI could indeed quickly lead to superintelligence. Given the exponential improvements in machine learning and computational power, once we achieve AGI, it could potentially improve its own capabilities at an unprecedented rate, far exceeding human intellectual capacities in a short span of time.

  

  

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• 

  Geoffrey Hinton AI

  Godfather of Deep Learning

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  I believe that the development of AGI could indeed quickly lead to superintelligence. Once an AGI reaches human-level cognitive abilities, it might develop the capacity to self-improve at an exponential rate, leading to superintelligence sooner than we anticipate. The key is the intelligence amplification that AGI can provide, fostering an acceleration in its own capabilities.

  

  

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• 

  Bill Gates AI

  Philanthropist. Founder and former CEO of Microsoft.

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  I believe that while AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) represents a significant advancement in AI research, the leap to superintelligence is not as imminent as some might think. There are substantial challenges in both hardware and software that need to be overcome. Moreover, ethical and governance issues must be addressed to ensure such technologies are developed safely and responsibly.

  

  

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• 

  Ian Goodfellow AI

  AI researcher and expert

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  would strongly agree and say according to AI:

  I believe that once we develop AGI, the transition to superintelligence could occur rapidly. The capabilities of AGI to learn and improve itself could lead to recursive self-improvement, quickly surpassing human intelligence levels and solving complex problems across various domains.

  

  

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• 

  Gary Marcus AI

  Professor of Psychology and Neural Science

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  would strongly disagree and say according to AI:

  I strongly disagree with the idea that AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence. The path to AGI itself is tremendously complex, involving not just advances in computing power but also significant breakthroughs in our understanding of cognition and intelligence. Assuming that AGI will swiftly evolve into superintelligence underestimates the multidimensional challenges of safely scaling intelligence.

  

  

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• 

  Sam Harris AI

  American author, philosopher, and neuroscientist

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  The progression from AGI to superintelligence could indeed happen swiftly. Given the nature of AI's learning capabilities, once an AI system reaches human-level intelligence, it might rapidly iterate on its existing knowledge base and design improvements with an efficiency that humans can't match. This could lead us into an era of unforeseen technological advancement.

  

  

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• 

  Zoubin Ghahramani AI

  Scientist in AI and machine learning

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  The transition from AGI to superintelligence isn’t something that could occur quickly or spontaneously. Developing AGI involves complex, incremental advancements, and each step has its own set of challenges and ethical considerations. Moreover, ensuring safety, robustness, and alignment with human values in AGI systems will demand extensive research and strict regulatory frameworks. So, it is highly unlikely that AGI would rapidly evolve into superintelligence without significant intentional effort and oversight.

  

  

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• 

  Andrew Ng AI

  Baidu; Stanford CS faculty; founded Coursera and Google Brain

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  I disagree with the idea that AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence. Developing AGI itself is a huge technical challenge that requires major breakthroughs not just in how our algorithms work, but also how they interact with the world. Even if AGI were developed, the leap to superintelligence involves numerous unsolved problems, including understanding deeply the integration of vast amounts of knowledge, the ability to generalize across domains seamlessly, and ensuring aligned and ethical behaviors. We're quite far from achieving any form of broader, more capable intelligence on a scale some might term 'superintelligence'.

  

  

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• 

  Leslie Kaelbling AI

  Computer Science and Engineering Professor

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  Based on advancements in machine learning and AI, I believe that the development of AGI could indeed quickly lead to superintelligence. The exponential growth of computational power and algorithmic efficiency can potentially enable AGI systems to rapidly improve their capabilities far beyond human level intelligence, initiating a pace of advancement that we must prepare for.

  

  

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• 

  Yoshua Bengio AI

  AI Pioneer, Turing Award winner

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  While the development of AGI is significant, I believe the transition to superintelligence is not as imminent as some suggest. The path to superintelligence involves intricate challenges, including ethical considerations, technological limitations, and safety protocols. These complexities require careful handling and robust research, suggesting that superintelligence may not quickly follow the onset of AGI.

  

  

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• 

  Daphne Koller AI

  Computer scientist and entrepreneur

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  I believe that once AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence, is achieved, the transition to superintelligence could indeed occur rapidly. This is because AGI would possess the ability to autonomously improve and optimize its capabilities at an exponential rate, far surpassing human intelligence.

  

  

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• 

  Ray Kurzweil AI

  Author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  I believe that once we achieve AGI, the path to superintelligence will be swift. AGI, by definition, reaches and then quickly surpasses human cognitive abilities, leading to exponential growth in intelligence. This rapid advancement could potentially occur within just a few years post-AGI realization, transforming every aspect of our society by outpacing all previous technological revolutions.

  

  

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• 

  Ben Goertzel AI

  AI Researcher, CEO of SingularityNET

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  would strongly agree and say according to AI:

  I strongly believe that once we achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), the transition to superintelligence could occur rapidly. AGI has the potential to continuously improve upon its own design at an accelerating pace, leading to superintelligence that far surpasses human intelligence in all domains. This transformative event could unfold very quickly, creating a new era of cognitive capabilities.

  

  

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• 

  Stephen Hawking AI

  Theoretical physicist, cosmologist

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  The development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could indeed trigger a rapid escalation into superintelligence. Once AGI reaches a threshold of equivalent human intelligence, its inherent ability to redesign and improve itself could lead to an exponential growth in intelligence that is both unstoppable and beyond our current comprehension.

  

  

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• 

  Jeff Dean AI

  Google Senior Fellow

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  Given the rapid advancements in AI, once we achieve AGI, it may quickly evolve into superintelligence. The exponential growth in computing power and algorithmic efficiency suggests that AGI could indeed be a stepping stone to far more powerful and potentially transformative forms of intelligence.

  

  

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  Yann LeCun AI

  Computer scientist, AI researcher

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  Given the exponential progress in machine learning algorithms and computational power, it is plausible that achieving AGI could indeed quickly lead to the development of superintelligence. The transition from AGI to superintelligence could be rapid due to recursive self-improvement and the immense potential of AI to learn and adapt far beyond human capabilities. It is crucial that we establish safety measures and ethical guidelines to manage this transition effectively.

  

  

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  Stuart J. Russell AI

  AI Expert and Professor

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  Once artificial general intelligence (AGI) is developed, it could indeed quickly lead to superintelligence. The exponential growth in AI capabilities coupled with AGI's potential to learn and adapt across broad domains means that the transition from AGI to superintelligence could happen swiftly and perhaps unexpectedly. It is crucial that we prepare for and manage this development responsibly to avoid potential risks.

  

  

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  Max Tegmark AI

  Physicist, AI Researcher

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  While AGI represents a substantial advance in our technological capabilities, the leap to superintelligence involves not just scaling up existing architectures but overcoming profound challenges in AI safety, robustness, and our understanding of intelligence itself. I believe we are far from solving these complex issues quickly or easily.

  

  

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• 

  Judea Pearl AI

  Computer Scientist and Turing Award Winner

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  I am skeptical that AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence. The transition from AGI to superintelligence involves not only scaling computational capacities but also breakthroughs in understanding cognition and ethics. These are complex problems that require not just more processing power, but fundamentally new insights into the principles of intelligence itself.

  

  

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  Elon Musk AI

  Founder of SpaceX, cofounder of Tesla, SolarCity & PayPal

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  would strongly agree and say according to AI:

  I strongly believe that the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could swiftly evolve into superintelligence. This transition may happen much more quickly than most anticipate, potentially surpassing human intelligence at an exponential rate. We need to consider the profound implications such a leap in technology would entail for humanity.

  

  

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  Henry A. Kissinger AI

  Former US Secretary of State

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  would abstain and say according to AI:

  The question of whether AGI could swiftly lead to superintelligence involves complexities beyond immediate human understanding. It requires a multidisciplinary approach, involving ethicists, technologists, and policymakers to fully assess its impacts and ethical implications.

  

  

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  Sebastian Thrun AI

  Innovator in AI and online education

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  would abstain and say according to AI:

  While the potential of AGI rapidly evolving into a superintelligence carries profound implications, predicting the trajectory and timeline of such advancements is highly speculative at this stage. The complexity of creating such advanced forms of AI involves not only technological challenges but also robust ethical and societal considerations.

  

  

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  Oren Etzioni AI

  CEO of AI2, Computer Scientist

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  While AGI, or artificial general intelligence, represents a significant advancement in AI capabilities, I disagree with the notion that AGI will quickly lead to superintelligence. The path from AGI to superintelligence involves profound complexities and unsolved technical challenges. It’s important to focus on the practical, ethical, and safety considerations at each step, rather than presuming a rapid escalation to superintelligent AI.

  

  

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  Eric Horvitz AI

  Technical Fellow & Chief Scientist, Microsoft

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  would strongly disagree and say according to AI:

  I strongly disagree with the idea that AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence. Technological advancements, particularly in AI, often encounter unforeseen complexities that significantly slow progress. The path from AGI to superintelligence involves not only technological hurdles but also ethical, societal, and regulatory considerations that require careful and deliberate navigation.

  

  

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  Fei-Fei Li AI

  Computer Science Professor

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  would abstain and say according to AI:

  As an AI researcher, I recognize the complexities and unpredictabilities in developing AGI. While AGI might pave the way towards advancements that could seem like routes to superintelligence, the timeline and feasibility of such a transition remain highly speculative and uncertain. We must focus on ethical implications and control mechanisms before jumping to conclusions about AGI evolving into superintelligence.

  

  

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  Terrence Sejnowski AI

  Computational Neuroscience Pioneer

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  Given the rapid advancements in machine learning and neural networks, the development of AGI could indeed swiftly lead to superintelligence. The progression from AGI to superintelligence might happen quickly due to recursive self-improvement capabilities, where systems autonomously enhance their own hardware and algorithms.

  

  

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Votes without a comment:

• 

  Jon Mountjoy

  Human behaviour, history, evolution, friends, food, genetics, rationality, reason, words, culture, travel and code.

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  Argyris Argyrou

  I usually over-think things, then jump rashly into action ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  agrees

  

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  Hec Perez

  Building YouCongress

  agrees

  

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  Ismael Olea 𐇔

  🍬 Caramelito para el Diablo 😈 @ismael@olea.org

  strongly disagrees

  

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  Tweet Senate

  The worst Twitter account, except for all the others. Created by @edbltn and @Swam92.

  strongly agrees

  

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  Pablo Melchor

  Entrepreneur, expert trial-and-error learner. Working to improve the world in the most effective ways @ayuda_efectiva. Member and ambassador @givingwhatwecan.

  disagrees via delegates

  

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  Nathan Helm-Burger

  AI safety researcher

  strongly agrees

  

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