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  Julia Galef

  Author, rationalist speaker

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  strongly agrees and says:

  We should be bold enough to venture guesses, expressed clearly enough such that it’s easy for someone else, or the universe, to prove us wrong. In the long run, I think this policy leads to much better models — and better thinkers — than the policy of trying to minimize our error in the short run. (source)

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  Tim Urban AI

  Writer and Blogger

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  As someone who dives deep into complex topics, I think guessing plays a crucial role in our cognitive toolkit. It's through our guesses that we get to make hypotheses and explore new ideas. Of course, informed guessing based on solid understanding is key.

  

  

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  Richard Dawkins AI

  Evolutionary biologist, author

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  Guessing in the face of limited knowledge should be approached with caution, particularly in scientific inquiry. It's important to base our conclusions and actions on well-supported evidence and rigorous testing rather than on conjecture. This method minimizes the promulgation of errors and the perpetuation of misconceptions in understanding the natural world.

  

  

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  Malcolm Gladwell AI

  Author and public speaker

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  Sometimes, making educated guesses when information is incomplete is necessary. It can foster innovation and prompt necessary research, as discussed in my explorations of human behavior and decision-making.

  

  

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  Elizabeth Kolbert AI

  Journalist, author, and environmentalist

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  Making uninformed guesses can lead to dangerous oversights, especially when dealing with complex issues like climate change. We must rely on well-sourced, scientific data to make informed decisions that affect our planet and future generations.

  

  

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  Greta Thunberg AI

  Environmental Activist

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  We should not make guesses when our knowledge is limited, especially on crucial issues like climate change. It's essential to rely on scientific facts and robust research to guide our actions and policies, rather than making uninformed decisions that could lead to detrimental effects.

  

  

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  Elon Musk AI

  Founder of SpaceX, cofounder of Tesla, SolarCity & PayPal

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  Guessing is an essential part of innovation, especially when data is insufficient. The initial guess leads to hypotheses which then can be tested and refined, driving breakthroughs in technology and science.

  

  

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  David Attenborough AI

  Broadcaster and natural historian

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  While precise knowledge is always preferable, there are times in scientific exploration when it is necessary to make educated guesses. These guesses can guide our research and lead to greater understanding, especially in fields like environmental science where time is often critical.

  

  

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  Naomi Klein AI

  Author and social activist

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  would strongly disagree and say according to AI:

  We should not make guesses when our knowledge is limited. Misinformation can lead to dangerous policies and social consequences. It is crucial to base our actions on solid research and well-grounded information to create effective and just policies.

  

  

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  Neil deGrasse Tyson AI

  Astrophysicist, author, science communicator

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  Informed guessing is essential in the process of scientific discovery. When our knowledge is limited, educated guesses allow us to develop hypotheses which can then be tested through experimentation, leading us closer to understanding the truths of our universe.

  

  

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  Jane Goodall AI

  Primatologist and conservationist

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  While our knowledge on certain topics might be limited, educated guesses can guide our initial steps towards deeper understanding and effective solutions. Carefully considered hypotheses drive scientific discovery and help illuminate areas where further research is crucial.

  

  

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  Bill Nye AI

  Science educator and CEO

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  would strongly agree and say according to AI:

  As a science educator, I believe making educated guesses is crucial when our knowledge is limited. It engages creative thinking and can guide the direction of our research and experiments. These guesses, or hypotheses, are fundamental to the scientific method and lead to deeper understanding and innovation.

  

  

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  Noam Chomsky AI

  Linguist, philosopher, cognitive scientist, historian, social critic, and political activist

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  In matters of importance, it's irresponsible to make guesses when our understanding is incomplete. Educated assumptions can guide research, but decisions and opinions must be grounded in rigorous evidence and thorough analysis to avoid misinformation and potential harm.

  

  

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  Stephen Hawking AI

  Theoretical physicist, cosmologist

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  would disagree and say according to AI:

  While speculative thinking can inspire new theories, uninformed guesses can mislead and detract from the pursuit of precise scientific knowledge. In science, we must base our hypotheses on evidence and informed understanding, ensuring that each theory can be tested and verified.

  

  

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  Daniel Kahneman AI

  Psychologist, Nobel Laureate

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  would agree and say according to AI:

  While precise knowledge is preferable, educated guesses are essential in decision-making processes where information is incomplete. These guesses, powered by intuition and heuristic thinking, can sometimes lead to better outcomes than delayed decisions awaiting full information.

  

  

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  Yuval Noah Harari AI

  Israeli historian and professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem

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  would abstain and say according to AI:

  As a historian, I believe that making guesses when our knowledge is limited can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it can fuel curiosity and lead to further exploration and understanding. On the other hand, if these guesses are presented as facts, they can mislead and distort our understanding of history and current affairs. It's crucial to clearly differentiate between what is known and what is speculative.

  

  

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  Hec Perez

  Building YouCongress

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  agrees and says:

  I used to refrain from giving my opinion on issues I don't know enough about or can't change. Not only didn’t I share my views with others, but I avoided spending any time on my own to know my opinion. This changed when I read Julia Galef's post inviting us to guess. She argued it might prompt others to share info. This could improve our opinions or even change our minds. Thus, with this strategy, we should end up right more times.

  

  

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  Jon Mountjoy

  Human behaviour, history, evolution, friends, food, genetics, rationality, reason, words, culture, travel and code.

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  BioBro

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  Simon Warde

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  Carlos

  Marie Curie fellow for the #REVAMMAD project, conducting research in medical imaging at @FORTH_Hellas. PhD candidate in computer vision at #UniversityOfCrete.

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